Lin Yifu: Under the impact of the epidemic, it is inevitable that the US and other emerging economic recessions
Today, the official WeChat official account of the Institute of New Structural Economics of Peking University published the article “The Current Largest Judgment of Internal Macroeconomic Trends” written by famous economist Lin Yifu.Lin Yifu said in the article that the developing economy has already weakened, and the isolation or closure measures brought about by the new crown epidemic are even worse for the economy that is already in the transfer channel.The United States, Europe, Japan and other countries expect that the current interest rate is already zero or negative. Except for the use of unconventional quantitative easing, there are not many other monetary policy tools available. The debt ratio of the government ‘s fiscal accumulation is already very high, and there is little room for fiscal policy.It is inevitable for the US and others to expect a recession.Lin Yifu also said in the article that this year due to the pressure and uncertainty caused by the economic consequences of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic and the collapse of oil prices, it has triggered the collapse of the stock market supported by decades of loose monetary policy.Looking ahead, it is likely to evolve into a global economic crisis.Under the current internal and external economic ethics, how does China respond?Lin Yifu said that when the export-prone surface suffers from the adverse effects of foreign epidemics, economic decline, and even depression and falls off the cliff, their governments should take advantage of the favorable policy space created by the supply-side structural reforms in recent years and adopt active monetary policy to stabilizeThe financial system, increasing credit funds to help real enterprises overcome difficulties, adopting active fiscal policies for new infrastructure construction, solving the low-income and poor families affected by the epidemic and providing necessary living expenses to expand domestic demand and maintain social stability,Eliminate the prospects for future economic growth and improve the quality of future economic growth.The following is the full text of the article: The current forecast of the next domestic macroeconomic trend. Since the second half of last year, Lin Yifu, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other international development agencies have repeatedly lowered the growth expectations of countries around the world this year and next.The global spread of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic and the collapse of oil prices have led to four of the five meltdowns since 1997 in the New York stock market in the United States in the last two weeks, compared with the highest point a month ago. The Dow Jones stock price index has broken off the cliffThe formula exceeds and exceeds.Driven by the collapse of the U.S. stock market, other stock markets with cumulative sums have also declined, and some have even reached 40% or more.Since January, the Chinese government has taken a series of measures to deal with the new crown epidemic, and has made remarkable achievements. China ‘s epidemic has reached the closing stage, and has provided precious experience and time windows for countries around the world to prevent the new crown epidemic.Most countries do not pay enough attention and take effective measures.The international spread of the epidemic is rapidly accelerating, and many countries have entered an outbreak period.As of March 23, the cumulative number of overseas diagnoses reached 260,574, which is the gradual expansion of 81,691 people diagnosed.Doubled, and the number of overseas diagnoses continues to increase exponentially.The World Health Organization officially confirmed the new coronavirus as a global “pandemic disease” (pandemic) on March 11, and there have been confirmed cases in 183 countries worldwide.The spread of the epidemic has the biggest impact on fractures with poor medical conditions like Iran, but the risks are also great.On the surface, the synthetic medicine system is very developed, but the country ‘s mobilization capacity is weak. When the epidemic spreads in some cities or states and counties, centralized treatment is facing great challenges. It is likely that the lack of effective treatment and isolation measures will increase the risk of full spread of the epidemic.Italy, Spain have adopted the same national seal city measures as before, and many other cities in the United States, Britain, Germany, Australia, Canada, Canada and other cities have also adopted isolation measures, and even adopted the entire nationalClose the city “.However, at present, the new Coronary Pneumonia virus has not yet developed an effective vaccine, and the isolation measures have been completed. It is difficult to be as effective as it is, and after curing, it may be rejuvenated, and the new coronary disease may continue to the second half or even next year.In the first half of the year, there may also be a steady wave after another, and the outbreaks have been concentrated in other developed and targeted areas like drumming and passing flowers, which has brought a tremendous alternative impact on the production and life of countries around the world.The initial economy has already weakened, and the isolation or closure measures brought about by the new crown epidemic are even worse for the economy that is already in the branch channel.The United States, Europe, Japan and other countries expect that the current interest rate is already zero or negative. Except for the use of unconventional quantitative easing, there are not many other monetary policy tools available. The debt ratio of the government ‘s fiscal accumulation is already very high, and there is little room for fiscal policy.It is inevitable for the US and others to expect a recession.According to the forecast released by JPMorgan Chase Bank last Wednesday, the United States may gradually shift to -1 before this year.8%, crude oil in the euro zone to -3.4%, the Democratic Party of Japan to -1.3%.As the epidemic continues to deteriorate, new predictions are becoming more pessimistic. The chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank of St. James?Brad believes that the unemployment rate in the United States in the second quarter may reach 30% and GDP may fall by 50%. The Great Depression of the United States and other alternative statues in the 1930s is already a high probability event.At present, in the world’s lowest country, the new coronary pneumonia epidemic is in the rising or outbreak period, and the one-year epidemic has basically ended.In addition to the prevention and control of imported diseases and the sharing of epidemic prevention experience with other countries, the current country urgently needs to open the ban and open the package in time to support enterprises to quickly resume production and make use of powerful masks, protective clothing, test boxes, ventilators and other necessary materials for epidemic prevention.And supply capacity exports to support other countries to curb the new crown epidemic.At the same time, when export sales continue to suffer from the adverse effects of foreign epidemics and economic growth and even depression and decline in cliffs, governments should take advantage of the favorable policy space created by supply-side structural reforms in recent years and adopt active monetary policies to stabilize the financial system, Increase credit funds to help entities overcome difficulties, adopt active fiscal policies for new infrastructure construction, overcome low-income and poor families adversely affected by the epidemic, and provide necessary living support to expand domestic demand, maintain social stability, and eliminate the futureThe expectation of economic growth enhances the quality of expected economic growth.I believe that it has the ability to maintain a reasonable growth rate in the utter silence of the international economy. During the world economic recession or even depression, it can still become the main source of power for global economic growth and recovery as it has been since 2008.The international financial crisis in 2008 triggered a global turmoil, which led the global economy to enter a gradual adjustment period lasting more than 10 years, which profoundly changed the internal power structure between this change and each other.The recessionary pressure and uncertainty brought about by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic and the collapse of oil prices this year have triggered a stock market crash that has been backed up by 10 years of loose monetary policy. Looking forward, it is very likelyIt has evolved into a global economic crisis.At present, as long as it can cope with it, maintaining stability and growth in the crisis will even help to achieve the goals of poverty alleviation until 2020. In addition, it can help other countries to prevent and control the epidemic situation with its epidemic prevention experience and materials, and continue to help otherAs the country emerges from recession or depression, it will, like the international financial crisis of 2008, further increase its proportion, locality and influence in the international economy.Sauna, Ye Wang waiting for editor Run Caizhou proofreading Jia Ning

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